- Elon Musk has three options now that Twitter had adopted a poison pill to prevent a hostile takeover, Wedbush said.
- Musk can formally lay out his financing strategy, find a strategic partner for the bid and increase it, or abandon the company.
- "The elephant in the room…is if a second bidder will emerge over the next week," analyst Dan Ives said.
Now that Twitter has adopted a poison pill to prevent a hostile takeover of the company, Elon Musk has three pathways forward, according to a Monday note from Wedbush .
Musk made an unsolicited bid for Twitter at $54.20 per share last week, representing a total market valuation of about $43 billion. That was after he acquired more than 9% of the company and toyed with the idea of joining the company's board of directors.
But since Twitter adopted a poison pill, Musk tweeted "Love me tender," hinting at the possibility of a tender offer to take over the company and side step the adopted poison pill.
According to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, he can now formally lay out his financing strategy, which would likely include taking on debt with his Tesla and SpaceX stakes as collateral, as well as a vision for the social media company going forward. That vision could entice investors who have seen virtually no return in the stock since it went public.
Shares of Twitter are virtually flat since it went public in 2013, while the Nasdaq 100 is up more than 440% over that same time period.
"Given Musk's antics over the years as well as comments at last week's TED conference, the Street remains skeptical on this bid and more details need to be highlighted to get more investors on board and increase pressure on the Board," Ives said.
A second path for Musk would be to find a strategic partner for the bid and increase it to about $60 per share, "which seems to be a more appropriate level in the eyes of many Twitter shareholders that could get the deal over the goal line," according to Ives.
But this option could be tough given that most strategic buyers, including private equity, won't see much financial incentive to get a deal done given Twitter's lack of free cash flow, "which could create challenges to find another bidder at a higher price," he said.
"The third option would be for Musk to hit the sell button and exit his position which we view as unlikely (at this point)," Ives said. But all of these pathways could change if a separate interested party steps in to takeover Twitter.
"In a nutshell, this week is very important for all the parties involved in this Twitter soap opera with time to get out the popcorn," he concluded.
